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it doesn't. maybe we get a debt ceiling fight down the road. washington still hanging on this economy to a great degree, it means the fed -- also nowhere near the unemployment target. there's nothing in the numbers to suggest the fed would be anything but completely dovish. >> sue? >> josh is going to join the conversation now. i think basically ben set it up for us perfectly. it does seem to be the u.s. fed versus the rest of the world. and once again mr. bernanke is presented with a crisis in another part of the world which may have to influence what he does here in the united states. >> that's exactly right. cyprus is going to play a big role in how he deals with europe. i think the fed wants to be curbs. if it's going to make any kind of move, it wants that move to be successful. that's going to be a guiding principle going forward. we have to remember there's a lot of forward looking events like that debt ceiling issue which is going to crop up in the middle of may. how we handle that will influence the economy going forward. we have to think forward when we read through the fed.
're going to do the recession here first. you can see back in september 2011, when we're dealing with debt ceiling, the probability of recession by this group, 36%, fell to a low of 19% around the winter of 2012. remember when everything was being looking good, it dipped down again. the probability of recession went up again. now it's fallen again for the second straight month. 2011, 17.6%. not quite off the charts because we still have room here but it's the lowest that we've seen since we began asking this question. i don't know if we have the growth forecast chart here, guys, if we can go back to that. here are the actuals. year over year gdp, 2.6, 1.8, lackluster and picking up to a lackluster not great 2.6%. i want to share with you some views of the economy from our 54 respo respondents. firming housing prices are a game changer. there is something much more self-feeding about recovery this year. could be a turning point. the objepposite from john rober. we believe a recession/economic slowdown is a possibility in the latter half of 2014 or early in 2015. some of the excesses that co
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